Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Projection Calculator

Project your annual recurring revenue based on current MRR, growth rate, and retention metrics. Model different scenarios for business planning.

Net Growth = Growth Rate - Churn Rate + Expansion Rate | ARR = MRR × 12 | Future ARR = Current ARR × (1 + Net Growth)^Months | CAGR = (Final/Initial)^(1/Years) - 1
Example: $50K MRR ($600K ARR), 10% monthly growth, 2% churn, 3% expansion, 3 years. Net growth: 11% monthly. Year 1 ARR: ~$2.1M. Year 3 ARR: ~$8M. CAGR: ~136%. This shows strong compounding growth potential.

How is ARR different from MRR?

ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) = MRR × 12. ARR normalizes to annual terms for easier comparison and investor reporting. Use MRR for monthly operational metrics, ARR for strategic planning, fundraising, and year-over-year comparisons.

What growth rate should I project for ARR?

Early-stage SaaS: 100-200% YoY. Growth stage: 50-100% YoY. Mature stage: 20-50% YoY. Use conservative estimates (70% of historical) to account for market saturation. Consider seasonality and product lifecycle.

How do I calculate runway with ARR?

Runway = (Cash Balance - Monthly Expenses) / Burn Rate. With positive ARR growth, runway extends as revenue increases. Calculate: Current ARR × growth rate = additional monthly revenue. Net burn = Gross Burn - ARR Growth Revenue.

What is the ARR compound growth formula?

Projected ARR = Current ARR × (1 + Growth Rate)^Years. For monthly compounding: Current ARR × (1 + Monthly Rate)^Months. Example: $1M ARR at 10% monthly growth after 12 months = $1M × 1.1^12 = $3.14M.

How accurate are ARR projections?

Projections assume constant growth rate and no market changes. Accuracy decreases over time. Use ranges: conservative (current growth × 0.7), expected (current growth), optimistic (current growth × 1.3). Update projections monthly with actuals.