Content Decay Rate Predictor

Predict future traffic levels for your content based on decay patterns. Know when to update before rankings drop.

Traffic when content was first published

How long until traffic peaks

How many months since publication

Typical: 5-15% for evergreen, 15-30% for time-sensitive

Revenue or value per visit

Decay Phase: Traffic = Peak × (1 - decay_rate)^months_post_peak; Growth Phase: Traffic increases until peak month
Initial: 5K visits, peaks at 10K month 3, now month 12, 7% decay: Current ~4,800 (96% of peak), 6-mo projection ~3,400, 12-mo projection ~2,400. 60% traffic retained - schedule update soon!

What causes content to decay over time?

Content decay happens due to: outdated information (readers notice), search intent changes, new competing content, algorithm updates favoring fresher content, link rot, and topic relevance changes. News/seasonal content decays fastest; pillar/educational content decays slowest.

What is a typical content decay rate?

General estimates: Evergreen content 3-8% monthly, how-to guides 5-10%, product reviews 8-15%, news/seasonal 15-30%. Actual decay depends on: topic stability, content quality, update frequency, and competitive landscape. Track your specific decay rates for accuracy.

How can I prevent content decay?

Strategies:定期 update with new information, add new sections/case studies, refresh data and statistics, update images and examples, improve readability, expand with related topics. Set up decay monitoring to identify content needing updates before traffic drops too far.

When should I update vs. create new content?

Update when: content has strong backlinks, good organic position, accurate core information, and moderate decay. Create new when: topic has evolved significantly, search intent changed, high decay rate, or you're targeting new keywords. A 40%+ traffic drop usually means new content performs better than update.