Sprint Velocity Predictor

Calculate and forecast sprint velocity based on your team\'s historical performance. Plan future sprints with confidence using statistical analysis.

Average Velocity = Sum of completed points / Number of Sprints | Capacity-Adjusted = Average × (Capacity% / 100) | Conservative = Average - Std Dev | Optimistic = Average + Std Dev
Example: Last 5 sprints: 25, 28, 22, 30, 26. Average: 26.2 points. Std Dev: 3.0. CV: 11.5% (consistent). Conservative: 23.2, Optimistic: 29.2. 3-sprint rolling avg: 26.0. Next sprint forecast at 100% capacity: ~26 points.

What is sprint velocity?

Sprint velocity measures the amount of work a scrum team completes during a sprint, typically expressed in story points. It's calculated by averaging the completed story points from recent sprints. Velocity helps teams forecast how much work they can deliver in future sprints.

How many sprints should I use to calculate velocity?

Use the last 3-5 sprints for a reliable average. Fewer sprints make velocity volatile and sensitive to outliers. More sprints include outdated data that may not reflect current team performance. Remove any anomalous sprints (e.g., sprint with major blockers or vacations).

What is a good sprint velocity?

There's no universal "good" velocity - it's team-specific. A team completing 20 story points per sprint isn't necessarily better than one completing 40, as point assignment differs. Focus on consistency and trend over time. A stable velocity with predictable delivery is more valuable than a high but erratic velocity.

How do I account for team capacity changes?

Adjust velocity for known capacity changes: team member additions/subtractions, vacations, holidays, or meetings overhead. Use the capacity adjustment factor: Adjusted Velocity = Average Velocity × (Planned Capacity / Average Past Capacity). This gives a more accurate forecast for the upcoming sprint.

Why is my velocity dropping?

Common causes: technical debt, scope creep, insufficient acceptance criteria, team changes, external interruptions, story point inflation, or improving estimation accuracy (which appears as lower velocity but isn't actually a problem). Investigate root causes rather than assuming the team is underperforming.